This is Ben's market;
You're short on "Valuation?"
What are you doing?
"On March 14, 2013, Garmin International, Inc. (“Garmin International”), which is a subsidiary of Garmin Ltd., entered into a Memorandum of Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Bombardier, Inc. (“Bombardier”).Garmin International is the supplier of the avionics system for the Lear 70 and Lear 75 aircraft currently in development for Learjet, Inc., which is a subsidiary of Bombardier (the “Program”). In order to assist Bombardier in connection with delayed cash flows from the Program partially related to the certification of avionics for the Program exceeding the planned delivery date, Garmin International agreed to provide Bombardier a short term, interest free, loan of $173.7 million in cash in seven installments beginning on March 22, 2013 and ending on September 20, 2013 pursuant to the terms and conditions of the Agreement.Conditional upon Garmin International returning to Learjet a flight test vehicle and delivering specified Garmin software and hardware to Learjet no later than July 11, 2013, Bombardier will repay the loan in five installments beginning on November 1, 2013 and ending on March 7, 2014, provided that the repayment dates will be extended on a day for day basis if the July 11, 2013 milestone date is extended."
|Something tells me this device isn't PETA approved. (garmin.com)|
"Within a few years, those price/earnings ratios of 80 or 90 had fallen to 8 or 9, meaning investors in America's best companies had lost 90 percent of their money. People may have bought into great companies, but they paid the wrong price."
In my theory of reflexivity I assert that the thinking of economic agents serves two functions. On the one hand, they try to understand reality; that is the cognitive function. On the other, they try to make an impact on the situation. That is the participating, or manipulative, function.The two functions connect reality and the participants’ perception of reality in opposite directions. As long as the two functions work independently of each other they produce determinate results. When they operate simultaneously they interfere with each other. That is the case not only in the financial markets but also in many other social situations.I call the interference reflexivity. Reflexivity introduces an element of unquantifiable uncertainty into both the participants’ understanding and the actual course of events.This two-way connection works as a feedback loop. The feedback is either positive or negative. Positive feedback reinforces both the prevailing trend and the prevailing bias — and leads to a mispricing of financial assets. Negative feedback corrects the bias. At one extreme lies equilibrium, at the other are the financial “bubbles.” These occur when the mispricing goes too far and becomes unsustainable — boom is then followed by bust.In the real world, positive and negative feedback are intermingled and the two extremes are rarely, if ever, reached. Thus the equilibrium postulated by the efficient market hypothesis turns out to be an extreme — with little relevance to reality.